When Joe Biden won the presidency and Democrats gained control of the House and Senate, Republicans immediately set their sights on 2022.
Though Biden is in for four years, the Senate and the House are operating on razor thin margins — and the GOP is increasingly optimistic that they’ll reclaim the House after the midterm elections.
Now they’ve got even more reason to be hopeful.
Historically, the party that sits in the White House loses approximately 25 House seats during the midterms. That alone should be enough to frighten Democrats, given their slight edge.
But there are other factors contributing to a possible Republican edge come 2022.
Some Democrat representatives are seeking state leadership posts around the country, and several others are retiring soon. This could easily tip the scales in favor of the GOP in less than a year.
Plus, we have to remember that the Democrat lead in the House dwindled after the 202 election cycle.
Via Fox News:
As Democrats face historical headwinds – the party that controls the White House on average loses roughly 25 House seats in the ensuring midterm elections – and a once-in-a-decade reapportionment and redistricting process that will favor the Republicans over the Democrats, a growing group of House Democrats is retiring altogether.
Rep. Cherie Bustos (Illinois) announced she’ll be retiring from Congress, and won’t run for reelection in her battleground district. Two other Democrats, one each from Texas and Arizona, will also retire.
Then you’ve got those who are looking for a new position.
For example, Rep. Charlie Crist is leaving the House to pursue possible election in Florida: he wants to challenge current Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.
And in Ohio, Rep. Tim Ryan will be vying for a Senate seat instead of trying to retain his House seat. Democratic Reps. Ron Kind (WI) and Conor Lamb (PA) may also go for Senate bids.
There are other Democrats who might seek a career shift as well. And this puts their party in a tough spot for keeping control of the House.
One veteran Democrat strategist says many House Dems may not want to “stick around” given the difficult reelection path:
There’s not a lot of upward mobility in the House of Representatives…and leadership’s very stifling.
If you think you’re going to lose anyway, why not take the risk and run statewide or why not exit gracefully on your own terms.
Currently, Democrats own the slightest majority in the House since WWII.
And right now, given the changing tides, along with career shifts and retirements, Republicans appear to be in a very good position going into 2022.
In fact, GOP consultant Brian Walsh said simply: “House Republicans are in a very strong position to win back the House next year.”